N. 83 December 2024 | But where the danger is, also grows the saving power…

A perfect storm looms over Europe. After surviving a series of crises over the past 15 years — from the risk of multiple defaults to the pandemic, from the refugee emergency to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — the Union now finds itself on the brink of new, grave tensions. The victory of Donald Trump on November 4 handed control of the world’s largest economic and military power to the far-right wing of the Republican Party, composed largely of unscrupulous billionaires and convicts. Their stated goal, “America First,” will result in an aggressive trade policy and disengagement from scenarios not deemed immediately strategic, starting with Europe.​

Trump’s election risks serving as a catalyst for other global crises. The situation in Ukraine could escalate into increased violence, with Putin intent on capturing more territories. In the Middle East, the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon and the shifting dynamics in Syria exacerbate instability, while South Korea is engulfed in political chaos following the failed coup by President Yoon.

The Trump storm hits Europe at a moment of acute political vulnerability. The two key nations, Germany and France, are paralyzed by internal crises. In Germany, with elections looming in February, CDU-CSU is likely to win a relative majority, but forming a stable government remains challenging. Potential coalitions with the SPD or the Greens (or both) appear fragile, while a sense of insecurity and the industrial sector’s crisis fuel support for the far-right AfD. In France, after the snap legislative elections in June, parliament is divided into three blocs — left, center, and far-right — making government formation extraordinarily difficult. The rigidity of the Fifth Republic, combined with the bold strategies of populist and extremist leaders like Le Pen and Mélenchon, precludes a short-term solution. Paradoxically, Italy demonstrates greater stability, at least for now, despite the evident struggles of the government in delivering on its promised economic (tax cuts and liberalizations) and institutional (regional autonomy and premiership) reforms.

These combined factors leave Europe a vulnerable target, exposed to a crisis on multiple fronts unprecedented in its recent history. However, in the face of these new dangers, the European Union can save itself by addressing the fundamental issues that have been paralyzing the integration process for decades and resolving the root causes of its structural decline.

This is the conclusion drawn from the Draghi Report on Competitiveness and the Niinistö Report on Security, drawn up at the initiative of the European Commission and made public in recent months. Both reports highlight that the EU’s vast potential is primarily blocked by chronic deficiencies in its institutional system, which prevent timely decision-making in the general interest, and by the limited availability of financial tools needed to implement its policies. Two reforms are therefore urgently required: abolishing the unanimity rule in the Council on key issues such as foreign and defense policy and granting the Union fiscal autonomy to borrow and raise its own resources. Only under these conditions can the EU make the political leap long awaited by its citizens, who, while retaining faith in the integration process, believe that current institutions are utterly inadequate to address today’s challenges.

This is the decisive test posed by the new cycle of multiple and potentially fatal crises for the Union: with the weakening of France and Germany, the only political leadership capable of addressing the general interests of the Union lies with the European Commission. Despite initial difficulties related to the appointment of Commissioner Fitto, from the Eurosceptic European Conservatives party, and Commissioner Ribera, contested by Spanish MEPs from the European People’s Party, the new executive led by Ursula von der Leyen was installed on December 1, 2024, on schedule.
In her inaugural speech, von der Leyen embraced the political objectives outlined in the Draghi and Niinistö Reports, announcing a series of legislative proposals, including the completion of the European Capital Markets Union, strengthening the European defense industry, and developing greater energy autonomy. Simultaneously, von der Leyen reaffirmed her commitment to institutional reforms, including treaty revisions, in close collaboration with the European Parliament. The latter, last year, presented an ambitious EU reform project aligned with citizens’ demands expressed during the Conference on the Future of Europe.

The new Commission’s task will thus be twofold. On the one hand, it must advance urgent short-term projects, not only countering U.S. tariffs but also supporting the European defense industry, making strategic investments for sustainable decarbonization, and reinforcing military aid to Kyiv, which will immediately necessitate the issuance of new eurobonds. On the other hand, the Commission must push governments to initiate an EU reform process, possibly through the convening of a Convention, with the support of the European Parliament, which has already submitted this request to the European Council without receiving a response thus far.

Only through decisive action by the Commission, supported by pro-European forces in the European Parliament, will it be possible to turn crises into opportunities and revive the prospect of a stable and prosperous future for the European Union.