The big election year continues. The choices of voters are shaping new government majorities and forming new international balances. In general, it seems that opposition parties are being rewarded in most electoral appointments: the victory of progressive forces in Mexico and the United Kingdom is due to the failing results of the outgoing governments in these countries; likewise, the strong reduction of Modi’s power in India, where his popular party has lost the majority and is forced to seek difficult alliances in Parliament, seems to confirm this trend. As for the upcoming elections in the United States, the situation is more complex and somewhat unpredictable: Trump has emerged largely unscathed from numerous judicial affairs thanks to the support of the Supreme Court and is now ready to “save America,” also bolstered by the “miracle of Butler,” a town in Pennsylvania where he survived an assassination attempt. As for Biden, who has achieved significant economic and foreign policy results, most American citizens now consider him unfit to fulfill his presidential duties due to health difficulties and advancing age. Hence the decision to withdraw from the race, leaving the Democratic Party the task of choosing a new candidate at the last minute who can defeat Trump.
While international political balances evolve rapidly, the results of the European elections instead send an important signal of stability: pro-European forces have maintained a majority in the Strasbourg hemicycle, with a significant drop only for the Greens, compensated by the growth of the Populars. Certainly, in some member states, far-right forces have achieved very significant results, particularly in France. However, in this country, the President’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call early elections has accelerated the reorganization of the French political landscape: the resilience of the republican front allowed the extreme right of the Rassemblement National to be cornered in the second round of the legislative elections, surpassed by both the united left in the new Popular Front and the presidential coalition. This result, besides confirming the fragmentation of the French political landscape into three blocs of similar size, has, at least for the moment, frustrated the far-right’s ambitions to conquer the national government and confirmed that most French citizens continue to support political forces favorable to the European integration process. It is not yet clear if and how much President Macron’s margin of action in foreign policy might be reduced by the possible election of a center-left government by the new National Assembly, but it is highly likely that the new executive will be able to maintain a line favorable to the integration process.
The result of the European Parliament elections, along with the resilience of pro-European forces in a key country like France, has created the conditions for Ursula von der Leyen’s reconfirmation as President of the European Commission. The re-election, held last July 18, saw 401 votes in favor, 284 against, and 15 abstentions, 41 more than the necessary quorum. This is very positive and not at all a foregone conclusion. Her majority, effectively expanded to include the Greens, essentially mirrors the pro-European forces in Parliament, where even partial support from Eurosceptic conservatives, anticipated and hoped for by many commentators, would have jeopardized this outcome, creating ambiguities and constraints on the future political direction of the Commission.
In her programmatic speech, which secured the confidence of the majority of the European Parliament, Von der Leyen chose an ecumenical approach aimed at satisfying the different factions of the coalition: defense industry and fight against irregular immigration for the Populars; housing plan and increased investments for the Socialists; confirmation of the Green Deal for the Greens (although its implementation must be “pragmatic”); strengthening the European market and fighting disinformation for the Liberals. At the same time, thanks to the pressure of federalist MEPs – already reorganized in the new Spinelli Group – Von der Leyen clearly affirmed the next Commission’s commitment to reforming the Treaties. This declaration is all the more important because it is the first time another European institution reacts favorably to the European Parliament’s reform initiative, which had formally opened the procedure under Article 48 TEU with a resolution last 22nd of November.
It should be noted that Von der Leyen’s proposal does not merely refer to Treaty reform in general but also characterizes it both in terms of content and method. On the one hand, Von der Leyen states that the Union’s reform, and thus the prospect of Treaty amendments, should focus on some priorities: strengthening the Union’s capacity to act (therefore addressing the issue of the veto right), improving European policies (likely reviewing the distribution of competences between the EU and member states), and consolidating the budget (hopefully creating true fiscal capacity for the Union). At the same time, Von der Leyen has committed to working on this front side by side with the European Parliament. In this sense, it is hoped that the current Parliament will claim the results of the outgoing one and reaffirm the detailed Treaty reform proposal already elaborated by the AFCO Committee based on citizens’ requests during the Conference on the Future of Europe.
The goal is to arrive in spring with a joint proposal from the Commission and Parliament to present to the European Council, which must achieve a fragile majority to support the opening of a Convention, likely in the second half of 2025. It is a difficult but necessary objective, requiring the coalition of effort and attention from all federalist and pro-European forces inside and outside the European Parliament.
In conclusion, nearly two months after the European Parliament elections, it is possible to state with relief that the window of opportunity for reforming the Union remains open, even though it is difficult to pursue. Meanwhile, history continues to knock on Europe’s doors for it to finally mature and take on its responsibilities. The ongoing war in Ukraine, the growing destabilization of the Middle East, the possible return of Trump to the White House, and China’s moves in Asia make it essential for the Union to transform and become a capable European power, free from national vetoes, in the interest of its citizens and the protection of its values.